The world is building nuclear capacity faster than at any time since the 1980s, and governments have now committed to roughly tripling it by 2050. As of March 2026, 38 countries have signed the declaration to triple global nuclear capacity, including China, the world's largest builder. Today 81 reactors (88 GWe) are under construction worldwide.
- Political consensus: the pledge grew from 25 countries at COP28 (December 2023) to 38 in March 2026.
- A deep pipeline: besides the 81 reactors under construction, 122 are planned (111 GWe) and 336 proposed (299 GWe). Together that is more than today's entire fleet of about 404 GWe.
- New nuclear nations: Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh are building their first plants, and more countries are lining up.
- Uranium impact: the World Nuclear Association's reference case has capacity reaching 746 GWe by 2040, with uranium demand more than doubling to about 150,000 tU (~390M lbs) a year.
- Front-loaded buying: every new reactor needs a first core of roughly three years' worth of fuel before it produces any power.
The tripling pledge
The declaration to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 has gone from a climate-summit statement to a coalition that includes the world's largest builder. China, Brazil, Italy and Belgium joined at the Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris on 10 March 2026, bringing the total to 38 countries (World Nuclear News).
- December 2023, COP28: 25 countries launch the declaration, led by the US, France, the UK, Japan, South Korea and Canada.
- 2024–2025: more countries join, including Kazakhstan (the top uranium producer) and several first-time nuclear nations in Africa.
- March 2026: South Africa signs early in the month. China, Brazil, Italy and Belgium follow in Paris.
Who is in it: Armenia, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, El Salvador, Finland, France, Ghana, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Netherlands, Nigeria, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Senegal, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, the UAE, the UK and the US.
The money is following. On 10 June 2025 the World Bank ended its decades-long ban on financing nuclear power (World Nuclear News). It will now fund reactor life extensions, grid upgrades and SMRs in developing countries, working with the IAEA. Its only previous nuclear loan was $40M for Italy's first plant, in 1959.
Why it matters: Italy and Belgium were phase-out countries that have reversed course, and China signing turns the pledge from a Western statement into a global one.
The reactor pipeline
The pipeline of reactors under construction, planned and proposed adds up to more than today's entire global fleet. The world runs 441 reactors (about 404 GWe), which supplied 2,702 TWh, or about 9% of global electricity, in 2025 (WNA).
- Under construction: 81 reactors, 88 GWe.
- Planned (approved, funded or committed): 122 reactors, 111 GWe.
- Proposed: 336 reactors, 299 GWe.
- Total pipeline: about 539 reactors and 498 GWe, compared with roughly 404 GWe operating today.
The IEA's count is slightly lower, at 78 GW under construction in 15 countries. There were 10 construction starts in 2025 (12.2 GW): nine in China and one in Russia (IEA).
Where the construction is:
- China: about half of all capacity under construction, heading toward 100 GW operating around 2030.
- India, Egypt and Turkey: about 5 GW each under construction.
- Japan, South Korea and the UK: two reactors each, 9.5 GW combined.
- Bangladesh: two units, the country's first.
- Russia: active at home and the leading exporter of reactors abroad.
WNA and IEA counts differ slightly because of reporting dates and how each defines capacity.
Country programs
The buildout is happening across Asia, North America, Europe and new nuclear nations at once, so no single country's politics can stop it.
China: the anchor builder
- About half of all capacity under construction worldwide is in China.
- Nine of the ten construction starts worldwide in 2025 were in China.
- Heading toward about 100 GW operating around 2030 (IEA).
- Joined the tripling pledge in March 2026.
India: from 8 GW to 100 GW
- 24 reactors (about 7.9 GWe) operating, with 8 more (about 6 GWe) under construction (WNA).
- The target is at least 100 GW by 2047, roughly a twelvefold increase.
- The SHANTI Bill (December 2025) opened nuclear power to private companies for the first time since 1962.
- About $2.1B of federal funding for at least five Indian-designed SMRs by 2033.
- India has limited domestic uranium and relies on imports from Kazakhstan, Canada and others.
United States: restart and rebuild
- The goal is 400 GW by 2050, up from about 100 GW (see Driver 1).
- On 28 October 2025 the US government announced an $80B partnership with Westinghouse, Cameco and Brookfield to build AP1000 reactors, including a profit-sharing mechanism for the government (Utility Dive).
- Closed plants are being restarted (Palisades, Crane, Duane Arnold).
Japan: post-Fukushima return
- 15 reactors have restarted, out of 33 operable (WNA).
- Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6, at the world's largest nuclear plant, returned to commercial operation in April 2026.
- The 7th Strategic Energy Plan (February 2025) targets about 20% nuclear power by 2040 and drops earlier language about reducing nuclear dependence.
Europe: phase-outs reversed
- Italy and Belgium, both former phase-out countries, signed the tripling pledge in March 2026.
- France, the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Sweden, the Netherlands, Romania and others are all signatories pursuing new capacity.
New nuclear nations
- Turkey: 4 units under construction.
- Egypt: 4 units under construction.
- Bangladesh: 2 units under construction.
- Uzbekistan: 4 units proposed.
- Africa: Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda and Senegal are pledge signatories building toward first plants.
SMRs and advanced reactors
Small modular reactors (SMRs) widen the market to places large plants can't serve, but they are still early. The first commercial units are coming online in China and Russia.
- Operating today: one land-based SMR in China and one floating SMR in Russia (IEA).
- Under construction: a 125 MW commercial SMR in China and a 300 MW SMR in Russia.
- The North American pipeline: Kairos (Google), X-energy (Amazon), TerraPower and Oklo (Meta), targeting about 2030–2035.
- India: at least five Bharat Small Reactors by 2033.
- Developing countries: World Bank financing for SMRs is now available.
Uranium angle: SMRs need more uranium per unit of power than large reactors because of their initial cores and, for many designs, HALEU fuel enriched to 5–20%. Many SMRs spread across many sites would add disproportionately to demand.
What the buildout means for uranium
The buildout alone could more than double annual uranium demand by 2040. A full tripling by 2050 would roughly triple it. Each GWe of capacity uses about 0.42M lbs U3O8 a year (WNA).
- Under construction (88 GWe): about 37M lbs a year once running, plus about 110M lbs of first cores bought before startup.
- Planned (111 GWe): about 46M lbs a year.
- Proposed (299 GWe): about 125M lbs a year.
- WNA reference case, 2040 (746 GWe): about 150,000 tU, or ~390M lbs a year, compared with ~179M lbs today (WNA).
- Full tripling by 2050 (~1,200 GWe): about 500M lbs a year, close to three times today's demand.
Why the timing matters: fuel is bought years before a reactor runs. Utilities order first cores 1–2 years ahead and sign supply contracts even earlier. Demand for uranium therefore shows up before the reactors appear in generation statistics.
Our calculations: 0.42M lbs per GWe-year, with first cores at about three annual reloads. These are illustrative, not forecasts.
Risks and counterpoints
Pledges are not reactors, and nuclear has a history of delays. Investors should weigh:
- Pledge versus delivery: tripling by 2050 needs roughly 30 GW of new capacity a year, compared with about 3 GW net added in 2025. Mitigant: even the WNA's lower scenario (552 GWe by 2040) means about 280M lbs of demand a year, well above today's mine supply.
- Cost overruns and delays: Western megaprojects such as Vogtle, Flamanville and Hinkley Point C ran years late and over budget. Mitigant: repeat builds of a standard design (China, the AP1000 fleet programme) cut cost and schedule.
- Retirements offset additions: about 3 GW retired in 2025, two-thirds of it in Belgium (IEA). Mitigant: life extensions and restarts are now the norm in the US, Japan and much of Europe.
- Chinese and Russian dominance: 94% of reactors that started construction in the past decade use Chinese or Russian designs. Mitigant: every reactor needs uranium whoever designed it, and Western programmes are now restarting.
- SMR execution: SMRs are not yet proven commercially. Mitigant: large reactors and restarts drive demand through 2035 regardless.
Investment implications
A global buildout running at the same time as a supply deficit (Driver 2) gives uranium one of the clearest multi-decade demand profiles of any commodity.
- Demand is locked in by steel and concrete. Once a reactor is built it consumes uranium for 60–80 years. The 81 reactors under construction alone commit decades of buying.
- Policy risk is spread out. With 38 countries, including China, the US, India and Japan, all expanding, no single election or policy reversal breaks the thesis.
- First cores create near-term pull. New reactors need roughly 110M lbs of initial fuel over the next several years, on top of annual reloads.
- Western buyers need Western supply. US, Japanese, European and Indian utilities are all looking for supply from secure jurisdictions, which favours North American producers and developers.
- Financing is no longer the barrier. The World Bank, government partnerships such as the $80B AP1000 programme, and hyperscaler capital are now funding reactors that need fuel.
This report is for information only and is not investment advice. Forward-looking figures are estimates drawn from third-party sources and our own calculations.
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